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Old 02-08-2010, 11:31 PM   #1
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20 Reasons Why the US Economy is Dying and is Simply Not Going to Recover

Ron Paul Predicts Doom


25 States Have Run Out of Unemployment Money

37 Million Americans on Food Stamps

EU on Verge of Panic!

Post your own stories of doom and gloom! Be part of the end of the world as we know it party! Whee!
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Old 02-08-2010, 11:48 PM   #2
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.48 cents of every tax dollar just for interest and that number is to go up next year. 406 Billion a year just in interest
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Old 02-09-2010, 01:42 AM   #3
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And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:

The merchandise of gold, and silver, and precious stones, and of pearls, and fine linen, and purple, and silk, and scarlet, and all thyine wood, and all manner vessels of ivory, and all manner vessels of most precious wood, and of brass, and iron, and marble,

And cinnamon, and odours, and ointments, and frankincense, and wine, and oil, and fine flour, and wheat, and beasts, and sheep, and horses, and chariots, and slaves, and souls of men.

And the fruits that thy soul lusted after are departed from thee, and all things which were dainty and goodly are departed from thee, and thou shalt find them no more at all.

The merchants of these things, which were made rich by her, shall stand afar off for the fear of her torment, weeping and wailing.

Revelation 18:11-15
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Old 02-09-2010, 04:39 AM   #4
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And the petroleum jelly and soiled roman leather thong, all ye welken.

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Old 02-09-2010, 08:42 AM   #6
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While I agree on most of the list, I wonder about the presentation... there is an agenda here other than presenting the facts.

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When a nation practices evil, there is no way that it is going to be blessed in the long run. The truth is that we have become a nation that is dripping with corruption and wickedness from the top to the bottom.
I really prefer my economic information unslanted. I can make my own decisions on who contributed to the clusterfuck.

Also, the credit card debt default wave is missing from their analysis... important in that it will hit banks already stressed from mortgage troubles, and that the new regulation is going to make it harder for credit card companies to milk their customers.
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Old 02-09-2010, 08:50 AM   #7
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An NYT Editorial is hardly unslanted.
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Old 02-09-2010, 09:12 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Briana Dawson View Post
An NYT Editorial is hardly unslanted.
Kindly show me where I think it is?

Oddly, I'd like all my economic information free from slant. Since that's not going to happen, I pick out the information and generally discard the opinion. However, there is a big difference between showing part of the picture and highlighting the parts you think are important (editorial) and adding language like "a nation that is dripping with corruption and wickedness."

Which I'm sure you know. So why waste your bandwidth trying to "gotcha." Did you read the article I quoted? Do you agree/disagree? Are there additional facts you think should be considered?
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Old 02-09-2010, 09:35 AM   #9
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I never know what to think about Ron Paul. Some of the things he says are spot on and other times I wonder what he's been smoking. This video strikes me as long on rhetoric, short on substance.

The part that concerned me the most is the call to strengthen the power of Congress. To do that without first reforming elections, campaign financing and special interest influence would make the situation worse. Those in the Congress who are honest brokers are hampered by a culture of corruption and crony politics.

I'm 50/50 right now on whether we're going to see civil unrest. I think it depends largely on if most people can keep a roof over their heads and food on the table. If the economic contraction can be slowed enough for people to adapt, then we may get through it without riots. I think there are too many variables and indeed - wild cards (like 9/11) to accurately predict what will happen.

What I don't see mentioned often is my belief that the American Dream as people have known it is essentially over for a majority of the population. People have been using unsustainable means to bolster their lifestyles for a couple of decades now and I think we've reached the limit. As education becomes less and less affordable, that route to increased prosperity is going to become less traveled.

I do believe Paul is correct about the appetite for a free lunch, but I don't think he nailed down who and where. It exists in both corporate and personal arenas, but since this is a democracy the buck fundamentally stops with a voting public who doesn't know what things really cost, values low price over any other metric, thinks only in the short-term, and who is mostly pig-ignorant about economics.
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Old 02-09-2010, 10:09 AM   #10
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OK.. my contribution to the doom & gloom.

U.S. Education Slips In Rankings

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Among adults age 25 to 34, the U.S. is ninth among industrialized nations in the share of its population that has at least a high school degree. In the same age group, the United States ranks seventh, with Belgium, in the share of people who hold a college degree.

By both measures, the United States was first in the world as recently as 20 years ago...
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...the United States remains atop the "knowledge economy," one that uses information to produce economic benefits. But, he said, "education's contribution to that economy is weakening, and you ought to be worrying."
U.S. Teens Trail Peers Around World on Math-Science Test

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The scores from the 2006 Program for International Student Assessment showed that U.S. 15-year-olds trailed their peers from many industrialized countries. The average science score of U.S. students lagged behind those in 16 of 30 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a Paris-based group that represents the world's richest countries. The U.S. students were further behind in math, trailing counterparts in 23 countries.
The US still holds the lead for quantity of best universities, but don't get too comfy. China is pushing hard to catch up. I heard an interesting interview last year with a guy out of the UK talking about how the biggest mistake Britain made when its empire ended was slacking off on the quality of its education system. As he put it, they "kept the crown jewels" (Oxford, Cambridge) and ignored the rest. Right now, we're spending our equity in the US.
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Old 02-09-2010, 01:50 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Surreal View Post
I never know what to think about Ron Paul. Some of the things he says are spot on and other times I wonder what he's been smoking. This video strikes me as long on rhetoric, short on substance.
Ron Paul is a lot like your kindly uncle who served in the war, and has a lot of trenchant observations based on his long life experiences, and then all of a sudden starts screaming about how the Austrians are plotting to steal his underwear.
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Old 02-09-2010, 01:54 PM   #12
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Here's something that isn't unslanted. Only democrat presidents have operated at a surplus for the last 60 years
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Old 02-09-2010, 02:02 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Vivianne Draper View Post
Here's something that isn't unslanted. Only democrat presidents have operated at a surplus for the last 60 years
Really?

Fiscal Year
Year Ending National Debt Deficit
FY1993 09/30/1993 $4.411488 trillion
FY1994 09/30/1994 $4.692749 trillion $281.26 billion
FY1995 09/29/1995 $4.973982 trillion $281.23 billion
FY1996 09/30/1996 $5.224810 trillion $250.83 billion
FY1997 09/30/1997 $5.413146 trillion $188.34 billion
FY1998 09/30/1998 $5.526193 trillion $113.05 billion
FY1999 09/30/1999 $5.656270 trillion $130.08 billion
FY2000 09/29/2000 $5.674178 trillion $17.91 billion
FY2001 09/28/2001 $5.807463 trillion $133.29 billion






Came close in 2000, I'll give ya that

(can't get it to format right, but the last columns are the deficit for that year)
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Old 02-09-2010, 02:06 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Vivianne Draper View Post
Here's something that isn't unslanted. Only democrat presidents have operated at a surplus for the last 60 years
Yup.

However, that doesn't mean that everything was bright and shiny. These problems have been in the works since the 70s. Bank deregulation and corporate looting started in the 80s under Clinton. The Bush era simply accelerated it made it blatant, culminating in the "no strings attached" bank bail-out.

But even without the ruinous Iraq war, those policies and the underlying rot would be coming home to roost now.
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Old 02-09-2010, 02:07 PM   #15
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Really?
Viv meant "the only presidents who have operated at a surplus in the last 60 years have been Democrats". afaict, the numbers you posted don't cast any doubt on that...
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Old 02-09-2010, 02:30 PM   #16
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Really?
You're including offbudget nondiscretionary spending.

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There is a significant difference between the reported budget deficit and the change in debt. The key differences are: 1) The Social Security surplus, which reduces the "off-budget" deficit often reported in the media; and 2) Non-budgeted spending, such as for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
From FY1998 to FY2001 the government budget posted surpluses and there was serious talk of using it to pay off the debt. At least until Bush (oh, sorry, OMGTERRORISTS) happened. (Never mind that the budget was actually destroyed through first huge tax cuts and then unfunded Medicare mandates.)
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Old 02-09-2010, 02:50 PM   #17
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Of course that includes the Social Security Surplus.

But you can hardly say you balanced your budget or claim a surplus when to do that you borrowed money that has to be repaid.

Oh dear



"Update 3/31/2009: The Social Security "surplus"--which has been borrowed by the Federal Government every year, including under Clinton to generate the "surplus"--is now expected to evaporate within a year (2009 or 2010)

With unemployment rising, the payroll tax revenue that finances Social Security benefits for nearly 51 million retirees and other recipients is falling, according to a report from the Congressional Budget Office. As a result, the trust fund's annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year -- nearly a decade ahead of schedule -- and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation's books...."
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Old 02-09-2010, 02:55 PM   #18
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You're playing with budgetary semantics. Social security was off budget all through the 1990s (remember the rhetoric about the "lockbox" during the 2000 election?) and its churning through the debt on its relentless path towards insolvency doesn't change the fact that Clinton's second term was fiscally responsible, and Bush's two terms were not.

The jury is still out on Obama - the aftermath from the recession's economic collapse and refusal to raise any taxes caused wild overspending in 2010, and it looks like the Obama administration is at least making noises about fiscal responsibility in 2011. The real mark of progress of course will be if the irresponsible Bush tax cuts are allowed to sunset.

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Old 02-09-2010, 03:05 PM   #19
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How ya figure....and I will admit the Clinton years were more fiscally responsible than some other administrations (perhaps because he had a republican congress holding the purse strings), but the bottom line is money that was borrowed from trust funds were used to obtain that surplus.

If I may quote an esteemed Democrat senator at the time


"So the table itself, according to the figures issued yesterday, showed the Federal Government ran a surplus. Absolutely false. This reporter ought to do his work. This crowd never has asked for or kept up with or checked the facts. Eric Planin--all he has to do is not spread rumors or get into the political message. Both Democrats and Republicans are all running this year and next and saying surplus, surplus. Look what we have done. It is false. The actual figures show that from the beginning of the fiscal year until now we had to borrow $127,800,000,000. - Democratic Senator Ernest Hollings, October 28, 1999"



Not just a knock on Clinton, everyone has done it for the past 25 years or so
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Old 02-09-2010, 03:09 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VictoriaK View Post
Really?

Fiscal Year
Year Ending National Debt Deficit
FY1993 09/30/1993 $4.411488 trillion
FY1994 09/30/1994 $4.692749 trillion $281.26 billion
FY1995 09/29/1995 $4.973982 trillion $281.23 billion
FY1996 09/30/1996 $5.224810 trillion $250.83 billion
FY1997 09/30/1997 $5.413146 trillion $188.34 billion
FY1998 09/30/1998 $5.526193 trillion $113.05 billion
FY1999 09/30/1999 $5.656270 trillion $130.08 billion
FY2000 09/29/2000 $5.674178 trillion $17.91 billion
FY2001 09/28/2001 $5.807463 trillion $133.29 billion






Came close in 2000, I'll give ya that

(can't get it to format right, but the last columns are the deficit for that year)
Spending is spending....
. great post
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Old 02-09-2010, 03:35 PM   #21
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This entry is instructive and despite the credibility of its source for estimating the future, has some serious problems in its estimation of the future fiscal situation. US National Debt from wikipedia


The growth of foreign held debt is disturbing, but we Americans are the ones who own most of our debt. We owe ourselves the money. In fact, as Lum points out--it bears repeating--the Social Security Trust Fund has been lending its surpluses to the operations of the Federal Government for decades. It used to be more explicit, but under an Act to consolidate the federal budget, the loaning of the SS surplus became effectively hidden. No large media outlet beats this drum during budget talk time.



This is the one that bothers me (my reasons below it):

The baby boomers have begun to retire (those born in 1946 turn 65 in 2011, most born in 1975 will be dead by 2060, most of the modal* cohort--born in 1961--will be dead by 2046), but this chart--from the GAO--implies that the boom goes on forever. Do ghosts collect medicare and social security?


Also, the flatline for government revenues seems to assume that we will never again go through a period of expansion like that of the 90s. Though I agree with the need for the currently large deficits, the federal government will have to begin generating surpluses sooner that Obama has said. Much sooner.

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Old 02-09-2010, 05:57 PM   #22
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I believe that flat line of revenue is going to go down, not up. (And I believe is already going down.)

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Old 02-09-2010, 06:04 PM   #23
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I believe that flat line of revenue is going to go down, not up. (And I believe is already going down.)

coco
You're betting that the current mess is getting worse and will continue to do so, without end?
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Old 02-09-2010, 06:36 PM   #24
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I believe that flat line of revenue is going to go down, not up. (And I believe is already going down.)
If only there was some way for governments to increase the amount of revenue they have to work with.
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Old 02-09-2010, 06:40 PM   #25
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Quote:
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If only there was some way for governments to increase the amount of revenue they have to work with.
Corporate tax receipts for last year are reportedly 55% lower than the previous year. I haven't heard on individuals. While income may improve in coming years, even significantly raising taxes in the short term may not help.
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Old 02-09-2010, 06:46 PM   #26
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If only there was some way to lower the amount of money the government spent.

If only there was some way to make it an automatic requirement that spending required available sources of funding before it was enacted.

If only it were 1998 again. (Among other things, I'd buy the crap out of Apple stock.)
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Old 02-09-2010, 09:37 PM   #27
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Well, that's one way of looking at things.

The other is the Dow was up somewhere around 4,000 points. The economy is growing and jobs are being created. If you lost money in your 401K prior to the Obama presidency--you've gotten it back--and made money. Lots of it if you actively managed it.

Lets put things in perspective.

GDP Growth rate from 1961 until now

This is one very, very motherfucking huge economy that we're talking about. All the chaos, while significant is just what happens to an economy when it's mismanaged. What's been going on the last 12 months is the largest opportunity for assimilating wealth since the railways were constructed.

I don't understand why Obama doesn't push the point of healthcare and entrepreneurship. That's stopping alot of people from going into business on their own right now. Where's Joe the Plumber ffs?

Anyway, markets always recover and people like Warren Buffet have made literally billions in 12 months because of people overreacting to bad news, which I think has alot to do with our problems. The group controlling the wealth right now didn't grow up with access to information like they have now--I think it made for some spectacular panic and glee fests.

Markets always recover.

eta-one more thing--see the early 80s problem? You know who cleaned it up? Paul Volker.
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Old 02-09-2010, 09:44 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vivianne Draper View Post
Here's something that isn't unslanted. Only democrat presidents have operated at a surplus for the last 60 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by VictoriaK View Post
Really?

Fiscal Year
Year Ending National Debt Deficit
FY1993 09/30/1993 $4.411488 trillion
FY1994 09/30/1994 $4.692749 trillion $281.26 billion
FY1995 09/29/1995 $4.973982 trillion $281.23 billion
FY1996 09/30/1996 $5.224810 trillion $250.83 billion
FY1997 09/30/1997 $5.413146 trillion $188.34 billion
FY1998 09/30/1998 $5.526193 trillion $113.05 billion
FY1999 09/30/1999 $5.656270 trillion $130.08 billion
FY2000 09/29/2000 $5.674178 trillion $17.91 billion
FY2001 09/28/2001 $5.807463 trillion $133.29 billion

Came close in 2000, I'll give ya that

(can't get it to format right, but the last columns are the deficit for that year)
I don't understand what you're criticizing. The information you presented supported what the llama said.
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Old 02-09-2010, 09:50 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lum View Post
If only there was some way for governments to increase the amount of revenue they have to work with.
This is where someone comes in and quotes David Stockman and Reagonomics, which is usually pretty funny since David Stockman himself pointed out that it didn't work.
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Old 02-09-2010, 09:56 PM   #30
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Ah, yes, the "blow-dried Grim Reaper" (a moniker attributed to William Safire):

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Old 02-09-2010, 11:03 PM   #31
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Anyway, markets always recover and people like Warren Buffet have made literally billions in 12 months because of people overreacting to bad news, which I think has alot to do with our problems. The group controlling the wealth right now didn't grow up with access to information like they have now--I think it made for some spectacular panic and glee fests.

Markets always recover.
I made ~12% on my investments/retirement for calendar year 2009. Admittedly Apple treated me very well or I would have been closer to 10% but still. Fatz speaks the truth.
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Old 02-10-2010, 12:25 AM   #32
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Markets always recover.
You're not playing right. It's like this:

Crisis looms in Japan!

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The building blocks of Japan’s future are collapsing, in the view of many economists. Japan has fewer children and more senior citizens as a percentage of its population than any country in recorded history, but the government does little to encourage childbirth or enable immigration. Even as the working-age population shrinks, only a third of Japanese women stay on in the workforce after having a child, compared with about two-thirds of women in the United States.

“The current direction is clearly unsustainable, and something has to be done,’’ said Takatoshi Ito, a professor of economics at the University of Tokyo.
Hmm, maybe I should have put this in thread games.
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Old 02-10-2010, 01:40 AM   #33
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If only there was some way to lower the amount of money the government spent.

If only there was some way to make it an automatic requirement that spending required available sources of funding before it was enacted.

If only it were 1998 again. (Among other things, I'd buy the crap out of Apple stock.)

"caused wild overspending in 2010"

I'm beginning to think your whole shtick is about raising taxes.

I've been browbeaten on numerous thread about how "stop spending" is a stupid idea, but it now looks like you agree there is such a thing as spending too much. Therefore, you would agree that overspending exists, and is best avoided.

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Old 02-10-2010, 01:42 AM   #34
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You're betting that the current mess is getting worse and will continue to do so, without end?
It gets to be a self-fulling prophecy. The more people out of work, the less tax revenue.

I've read recently where tax receipts are way off already. Yet that chart shows essentially a straight line into the future.

No, I'm not betting it gets worse and will continue to do so without end. If I were betting that, I would have taken out my investments and put it in gold. I'm in fact betting on the system with my money, and will probably ride it out to improvement, or to the bitter end, whichever happens, and my bet is on the former.

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Old 02-10-2010, 01:49 AM   #35
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I'm in fact betting on the system with my money, and will probably ride it out to improvement, or to the bitter end, whichever happens, and my bet is on the former.

coco
So, government spending might avert the crisis? That is your bet, because little else is in place to ride out the storm.

As Artie Johnson used to say from behind a bush..."Verrrrrrrrrry Innnnnteresting"

Last edited by Bard Jameson; 02-10-2010 at 02:28 PM. Reason: Johnson! NOT "Shaw"
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Old 02-10-2010, 01:57 AM   #36
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There's some days when 'I told you so' just doesn't say it. But what do I know.

Lain (is Bams) heads for her bunker, dragging Bunns behind.
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Old 02-10-2010, 02:09 AM   #37
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So, government spending might avert the crisis? That is your bet, because little else is in place to ride out the storm.

As Artie Shaw used to say from behind a bush..."Verrrrrrrrrry Innnnnteresting"
No. The opposite, minus some sensible stimulus.

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Old 02-10-2010, 02:48 AM   #38
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I'm beginning to think your whole shtick is about raising taxes.

I've been browbeaten on numerous thread about how "stop spending" is a stupid idea, but it now looks like you agree there is such a thing as spending too much. Therefore, you would agree that overspending exists, and is best avoided.
I'm beginning to think your whole shtick is about ignoring every post I make whenever it's inconvenient for you. I have consistently, constantly, to the point of embarassing repetition said:

- we diverged from fiscal sanity in 2002-2004 due to tax cuts and medicare benefit hikes
- calls for 'spending cuts' without specifics and without targeting programs that take up 75% of the budget are meaningless placebos
- the solution involves a drawing down of the federal budget and some form of across-the-board tax, most likely a VAT similar to Europe.

To balance budgets, you don't spend more than you take in. This is not rocket science.

I'm very, very tired of repeating myself. I'm very, very tired of being misconstrued here by you. I'm very, very tired of the way our country is going in general and our basic turn towards anti-intellectual bromides as an excuse for bad policy, which you seem to be doing your level best to personify.

I'm convinced more than ever we get the government (or lack thereof) that we deserve, and you are doing your best to convince me of the notion. And I'm sure when Palin is elected President in 2012 and the country promptly falls apart in wars, disorder and economic collapse due to collossal mismanagement and incompetence, you'll blame all those people who didn't listen to you in 2008, when you just started paying attention.

And there's MY 'dire economic prediction'.
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Old 02-10-2010, 02:51 AM   #39
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I'm convinced more than ever we get the government (or lack thereof) that we deserve, and you are doing your best to convince me of the notion. And I'm sure when Palin is elected President in 2012 and the country promptly falls apart in wars, disorder and economic collapse due to collossal mismanagement and incompetence, you'll blame all those people who didn't listen to you in 2008, when you just started paying attention.

And there's MY 'dire economic prediction'.
Mmm, pie. That's more like it.
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Old 02-10-2010, 02:51 AM   #40
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Oh, please, Lum, you and Coco live for each other.
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2 users agreed. You should agree too, c'mon, you know you want to. (click it, click it now!)
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